About This Indicator
The Probabilistic Breakout Forecaster uses a log-normal distribution model trained on historical breakout behaviour to estimate the probability that price will break a given level within the next N bars. Rather than simply drawing support/resistance lines, it gives you a live probability score that updates bar by bar.
The model factors in volatility regime, time spent at the level, volume profile near the zone, and distance from the mean producing a probability percentage that traders can use as a confidence filter before entering breakout trades.
Key Features
- Real-time breakout probability score (0–100%) displayed on chart
- Log-normal distribution model calibrated to current volatility regime
- Projected price target levels based on historical breakout distances
- Configurable forecast horizon (next 5, 10, or 20 bars)
- Alert when probability exceeds a user-defined threshold
- No repainting probabilities update on bar close only
How to Use
- Only enter breakout trades when probability score is above 65%
- Use projected target levels to set take-profit levels before entry
- A probability drop from high to low while price is at resistance = weakness signal
- Best on 1H–4H timeframes; calibrate forecast horizon to your trade duration
- Combine with volume surge confirmation to filter false breakouts