Spline Quantile Regression Channel

Uses non-linear spline regression to fit a smooth channel around price. Upper and lower bounds are defined by quantile regression, providing statistically grounded overbought/oversold levels.

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About This Indicator

The Spline Quantile Regression Channel uses a non-linear spline curve to follow price, then wraps it with quantile regression bounds at configurable upper and lower percentiles (e.g. 85th/15th). The result is a statistically meaningful channel that adapts to price volatility while remaining smooth and visually clean.

Unlike simple Bollinger Bands, which use standard deviation, quantile regression does not assume a normal distribution making it more robust in trending or skewed markets where price rarely distributes symmetrically.

Key Features

  • Non-linear spline fit tracks price curves more accurately than linear regression
  • Configurable quantile percentiles for upper and lower channel boundaries
  • Channel width adapts dynamically to current volatility regime
  • Colour-coded fill between median and bands for instant visual context
  • Alerts when price breaks above upper or below lower channel
  • No repainting all values confirmed on bar close

How to Use

  • Price touching the upper band in an uptrend = strong momentum, not automatically overbought
  • Price rejecting from upper band after a failed breakout = high-probability short entry
  • Median spline crossing = potential trend change signal
  • Use on 4H and Daily timeframes for cleaner signals
  • Combine with volume confirmation to filter false channel breaks